The Archaeology Branch, as part of the Resources Inventory Committee (RIC), is currently involved in an inter-ministerial initiative designed to coordinate their inventory with other provincial inventories. one aspect of this involves the investigation of the application Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to archaeological predictive modelling. This report was prepared by the Archaeology Task Group for the Earth Sciences Task Force and outlines the issues involved specific to the Branch.
In the last 20 years thousands of archaeological sites have been identified in British Columbia and hundreds of site reports have recorded an enormous amount of valuable archaeological information. During this time, however, there has been little attention paid to the development of techniques that would enable archaeologists to utilize all the accumulated data on cultural resources in a strategic planning process. To help address these issues, the Archaeology Branch is interested in predictive modelling, both as a method for integrating existing data as well as for the potential for effective and efficient management of cultural resources on a long term basis.
The value of predictive modelling as a method to help resolve the problems inherent in the management of cultural materials is obvious. The ability to determine the relative probability of site location without continuous and expensive field survey is without question beneficial to the administration of any resource inventory. However, within the parameters of a scientifically based field like archaeology, any procedure that affects the well established and generally accepted conventional methodological approach must be subject to rigorous evaluation by those who will employ it before it will be accepted.
As a first step, this paper examines existing archaeological predictive modelling studies to determine if this is an appropriate methodology to assist in regional planning and resource management of archaeological resources.
To begin, it will be necessary to briefly describe and define archaeological predictive modelling. Sections two and three describe the development of models in general and the types of models most commonly used. Section four summarizes archaeological applications of GIS. Sections five and six discuss the problems and advantages of archaeological predictive modelling as developed over the last decade. Sections seven and eight summarize the difficulties in evaluating variety and variability in modelling approaches. Section nine outlines the necessary conditions for the development of an archaeological predictive model (or models) for British Columbia.