Through the Resources Inventory Committee, the Archaeology Branch is currently involved in an inter-ministerial initiative designed to coordinate their inventory with other provincial inventories. As part of this project, the Branch is investigating the application of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to archaeological predictive modelling.
As analytic tools, archaeological predictive models are well-suited to applications in land management. Among other things, they identify patterns in spatial relationships between archaeological sites and their physical locations and thus indicate potential relationships between the natural or social environment and the locations of past human activities.
In general, the use of predictive models based on sampling is a good way of obtaining a general impression of an area, of being able to tell with a certain degree of precision and reliability what is "out there". As such, they are of value to planners and developers in choosing among possible alternatives and in helping minimize damage, delays, and expense.
By focusing research on the location of sites, as well as on the types of sites expected to occur in specific locations, the modelling process can help to define major similarities and differences among sites, and reflects the information potential for both identified and "projected" sites within an area. GIS provides an environment in which sophisticated modelling can be undertaken.
It is apparent that model-building is a very complex and time-consuming process. To develop a set of standards for the archaeological and environmental data required to prepare predictive models, is somewhat difficult to evaluate. There is no set of standards or "cookbook" to follow because of the variety and variability in modelling approaches and management objectives, as well as regional physiographic and cultural differences.
Predictive modelling holds much promise for cultural resource management in land-managing agencies, even though it is currently in a highly experimental and rapidly changing state.